New research published in Nature Climate Change warns that increasing atmospheric dryness and stronger storm activity could significantly weaken the Amazon rainforest’s ability to store carbon over the coming decades.
The study, led by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences alongside international partners including Cornell University, examined how biomass turnover in Amazonian forests is accelerating as climate conditions become more extreme. Biomass turnover refers to how quickly vegetation dies and is replaced, a process directly linked to how long carbon remains stored in forest ecosystems.
Scientists explained that tropical forests contain more than 60% of the world’s vegetation biomass and play a central role in regulating the global carbon cycle. However, faster turnover means carbon is released back into the atmosphere more rapidly, reducing the long-term stability of these natural carbon sinks.
To conduct the research, the team combined satellite remote sensing data with long-term forest observations across the Amazon. Using machine learning models, they mapped tree mortality patterns and evaluated how environmental factors influence carbon turnover across the region.
The findings identified convective storms — intense weather systems often associated with heavy rainfall and strong winds — as one of the most influential drivers of biomass turnover in Amazonian forests, surpassing even drought-related stress indicators in some areas.
Researchers project that by the end of the century, biomass carbon turnover time could decline by around 3% under a low-emissions scenario and up to 15% under a high-emissions scenario, potentially weakening the Amazon rainforest’s role in mitigating global climate change.
